Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.267390 0.325480 0.396401 0.490448 0.613538 0.771503 9.934358e-01
2025-05-11 0.182130 0.241892 0.323446 0.445952 0.630923 0.909590 1.381623e+00
2025-05-18 0.127057 0.180252 0.259364 0.390752 0.614544 1.003384 1.790211e+00
2025-05-25 0.091697 0.137272 0.210061 0.341824 0.591747 1.088052 2.287445e+00
2025-06-01 0.072181 0.113749 0.184895 0.325286 0.623098 1.307314 3.342107e+00
2025-06-08 0.058345 0.096272 0.165400 0.313292 0.663106 1.596154 5.086794e+00
2025-06-15 0.048595 0.083678 0.151527 0.308508 0.722804 2.017282 8.332157e+00
2025-06-22 0.041042 0.073447 0.139608 0.304380 0.788284 2.568068 1.431108e+01
2025-06-29 0.033948 0.062594 0.123625 0.284885 0.802471 2.998339 2.242004e+01
2025-07-06 0.025847 0.048210 0.096648 0.227657 0.663457 2.625733 2.241830e+01
2025-07-13 0.022519 0.043177 0.089740 0.223073 0.708055 3.255734 4.046581e+01
2025-07-20 0.020464 0.040470 0.087648 0.231977 0.816296 4.550634 9.888901e+01
2025-07-27 0.018604 0.038022 0.086096 0.244297 0.968486 6.864678 3.534160e+02
2025-08-03 0.016664 0.035011 0.082351 0.248348 1.097655 9.868199 1.581424e+03
2025-08-10 0.014615 0.031352 0.075917 0.240074 1.158433 12.805357 8.235373e+03
2025-08-17 0.012782 0.027901 0.069233 0.228021 1.188830 15.964196 7.773227e+04
2025-08-24 0.011618 0.025932 0.066431 0.230906 1.338419 23.962270 1.435112e+10
2025-08-31 0.010616 0.024202 0.063923 0.234204 1.511583 37.300675 NaN
2025-09-07 0.009801 0.022827 0.062191 0.240648 1.743828 63.227787 NaN
2025-09-14 0.009064 0.021527 0.060379 0.246125 2.000411 111.547150 NaN
2025-09-21 0.008198 0.019723 0.056388 0.238005 2.094157 162.832331 NaN
2025-09-28 0.006928 0.016594 0.047128 0.196519 1.681561 115.904049 NaN
2025-10-05 0.006422 0.015607 0.045300 0.196602 1.845948 193.302179 NaN